16 commenti

FARE al contrario: ridurre il debito pubblico aumentando la spesa

fare-contrario

Si può ridurre il debito pubblico (o meglio il rapporto debito/PIL) aumentando la spesa pubblica, finanziata con le tasse? Sì, si può.

E’ scritto su tutti i libri di testo di economia: a causa del moltiplicatore keynesiano, l’effetto depressivo dovuto all’aumento delle tasse è minore dell’effetto espansivo dovuto alla spesa pubblica. Pertanto è possibile, anche mantenendo il pareggio di bilancio, aumentare il prodotto interno lordo e così ridurre il rapporto debito/PIL.

Gli economisti Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari e Giovanni Melina hanno confermato empiricamente la differenza tra il moltiplicatore della spesa e quello delle tasse in un working paper del Fondo Monetario Internazionale di alcuni mesi addietro, del quale abbiamo già parlato.

Gustavo Piga, sul suo blog, mostra ora il risultato di una simulazione condotta dai tre ricercatori. Il primo grafico rappresenta l’andamento del debito pubblico con diversi livelli di manovra espansiva (0,5% – 1% – 3% e 5% del PIL) in una situazione non recessiva. I numeri sull’asse delle ascisse rappresentano i trimestri.

callegari1

Dopo 20 trimestri (5 anni) di stimolo fiscale del 5% si potrebbe ridurre il debito pubblico di quasi 20 punti. Più di quanto richiede il Fiscal Compact, per usare un parametro di riferimento. E, vale la pena precisarlo ancora, stiamo parlando di manovre in pareggio di bilancio, come lo stesso Fiscal Compact impone.

I tre autori, su richiesta di Piga, hanno anche effettuato la stessa simulazione in caso di recessione: in questo contesto si ha una riduzione fino al 33% del debito pubblico rispetto al suo (scongiurato) aumento, dovuto alla recessione.

callegari2

Si noti che questa ricetta è l’esatto opposto di quella proposta da Alesina e Giavazzi, FARE per fermare il declino, Scelta Civica – Mario Monti, che invece sostengono il taglio delle tasse e della spesa pubblica. Quest’ultimo tipo di manovra, nelle simulazioni di Batini – Callegari – Melina, avrebbe l’effetto opposto: fare aumentare il debito pubblico. Infatti l’effetto depressivo del taglio alla spesa pubblica supererebbe quello espansivo del taglio delle tasse.

Ripetiamo, ancora una volta, che non si tratta di nulla di esotico o eterodosso. Al contrario. Eppure nessuno, in Europa, suggerisce agli stati di effettuare manovre che prevedano maggiore spesa pubblica, in deficit o meno. Si lascia che i governi deprimano la domanda e così aggravino la crisi e i conti pubblici.

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16 commenti su “FARE al contrario: ridurre il debito pubblico aumentando la spesa

  1. E comunque, attenzione alle interpretazioni frettolose. Piga sul suo blog, in risposta ad un commento, chiarisce la sua proposta: non alzare le tasse, già aumentate più che a sufficienza, e “fare per 2013 1% di PIL di investimenti (scuola, Pompei, territorio, ICT, ospedali, ordine pubblico anti-mafia). Con un moltiplicatore maggiore di 1 torneremmo in territorio di crescita positiva e debito su PIL in miglioramento.”
    Mi sembra un discorso sostenibile.

  2. Yes, that will reduce the debt as the ‘automatic fiscal stabilizers’ do their thing. Problem is the falling public debt is matched by rising deficit spending in the other sectors, which tends to be unsustainable and limited.

    That’s why they are called fiscal stabilizers- they work in both directions. In a slow down the deficit automatically increases the govt deficit which works against the slowdown and supports growth. And as the economy expends the automatic stabilizers reduce the deficit which limits the expansion.

    so when the economy expands and the deficit comes down, and maybe even turns to a surplus, the risk is that net financial assets in the economy become insufficient to support the credit structure. That is, a falling public sector deficit means overall leverage in the economy is increasing, with all that implies.

    The point is the deficit needs to be kept at the right level for full employment. A smaller deficit isn’t ‘better’ unless the problem with the economy is people have too much to spend and unemployment is deemed to be too low.

    That is the deficit is a residual and not the policy goal with regard to public purpose.

    Warren Mosler
    http://www.moslereconomics.com
    me/mmt

  3. certo che dopo piu di un anno di politica restrittiva. corsa indiscriminata all’innalzamento del prelievo fiscale e di terrorismo finanziario andare a dire che e’ tutto sbagliato,che per avere un risultato positivo bisognava comportarsi esattamente al contrario,e’ decisamente dura da digerire.

  4. L’effetto depressivo dell’aumento delle tasse è non lineare: c’è un limite oltre il quale esplode, perché le imprese stramazzano al suolo (e quindi, tra l’altro, un aumento delle tasse si traduce in un minor gettito fiscale).
    Noi questo limite l’abbiamo ormai raggiunto, quindi non solo non è auspicabile aumentarle oltre ma occorre senza dubbio diminuirle.
    Qualsiasi ragionamento non può prescindere da questo punto di partenza.

    • Noi questo limite l’abbiamo ormai raggiunto, quindi non solo non è auspicabile aumentarle oltre ma occorre senza dubbio diminuirle.

      Qui non si parla necessariamente di aumentare le imposte più di quanto abbia fatto il governo Monti. Si tratta, invece, di usare diversamente le risorse aggiuntive derivanti dal prelievo. Inoltre c’è un capitolo di cui quasi nessuno parla: la progressività delle imposte sui redditi (e sui patrimoni). Oggi la curcva delle aliquote è scandalosamente piatta rispetto ai decenni precedenti.

  5. Sono d’accordo sull’uso diverso delle risorse, dove l’aggettivo “diverso” ha almeno tre significati: primo, oculato; secondo, non corrotto; terzo, “uso” e basta, perché in alcuni casi ci sono dei fondi comunitari che restano a giacere.

    Per quanto riguarda la progressività sono d’accordo in linea di principio, ma restano comunque dei limiti oggettivi che non dovrebbero essere superati. Se un livello di tassazione troppo alto ammazza le famiglie e le piccole imprese, sulle grandi imprese, che lavorano praticamente tutte a livello globale, ha l’effetto di rendere meno attraente investire qui. È come per la Tobin Tax: ottima idea, risolverebbe tanti problemi se fosse possibile applicarla a livello globale.

    Sulla tassazione dei patrimoni in quanto tali non sono d’accordo. Va tassato ciò che produce reddito. L’ideale sarebbe avere un’unica tassa, l’IVA, con una aliquota adeguata, e basta.

    • L’iva è regressiva.
      Una persona che guadagna 20 mila euro e spende tutto il suo reddito sarà tassato in base all’aliquota “adeguata” (se supponiamo che sia quella attualmente in vigore, sarà tassato al 21%).
      Una persona che guadagna 200 mila annui e spende il 70%, l’aliquota effettiva sarà (se quella “adeguata” è del 21%) del 14,7%.
      Una persona che guadagna 2 milioni annui e ha una propensione media al consumo del 40% sarà tassato effettivamente per l’8,4%.

      Negli Stati Uniti, l’aliquota marginale per i super ricchi in passato raggiunse il 91%. Ma non mi sembra che finirono in un epoca buia e desolata. Oggi siamo arrivati al punto, che la segretaria di Warren Buffett paga di più, in proporzione, rispetto al suo capo, uno degli uomini più ricchi del mondo.

      Non vi è nessuna ragione economica che vieta la tassazione del patrimonio, soprattutto se abbiamo sistemi fiscali basati sulle imposte indirette (ossia sull’iva, che abbiamo visto è regressiva),mentre quelle dirette colpiscono prevalentemente il ceto medio basso. Non si capisce perchè i più ricchi debbano essere esentati dal contribuire alle spese di uno stato che – nonostante tutto – consente loro di arrichirsi.

      Quanto alla spesa, oltre che oculata, non inquinata dalla corruzione ed effettivamente spesa, sarebbe opportuno che sia orientata a sostenere la domanda effettiva.

      • Hai ragione, ho fatto un esempio sballato: l’IVA non incide sulla produzione di reddito ma sulla spesa. Avrei dovuto scrivere IRPEF o IRES.

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  8. […] tasse. Come ci dice non solo la teoria, ma studi empirici di fonte tutt’altro che sospetta (FMI, BCE), i moltiplicatori delle tasse sono molto minori di quelli della spesa, sebbene questa […]

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